Monday, August 01, 2005
I'd Have Bradley Bunt Too
I was screaming bloody murder yesterday in 2 instances. First was when I realized that Tracy burned up the bench too soon and was forced to use Weaver as a PH in the 11th inning. More galling was when Bradley bunted with 0 outs in the 9th in order to advance the runners to 2nd and 3rd. Why have the #3 hitter, usually the best hitter in a lineup, give himself up when it was obvious that Kent was going to be walked intentionally to load the bases?
Forget Bradley's slump (.179 BA in 28 ABs) since returning from the DL. Forget his .208 average with RISP this season. Forget "clutch" altogether. Anyone can argue that Bradley is the better hitter and more likely to drive the runner in than Saenz. Here's a breakdown of ways to score.
Scoring with runners on 1st and 2nd, 0 outs:
Bradley gets a hit, and the runner on 2nd scores. (.282 BA)
Scoring with bases loaded, 1 out:
Saenz gets a hit, and the runner on 3rd scores. (.289 BA)
Saenz hits a successful sac fly. (He has 2 for the season.)
Saenz draws a walk. (17 walks in 227 PAs.)
A breakdown such as a wild pitch, balk, or HBP. (Unlikely.)
A suicide squeeze. (Really unlikely considering I've never seen Saenz bunt.)
There are a lot more possibilities with the bases loaded. I would say that the likelihood of scoring is higher with Saenz at the plate, considering that Bradley isn't astronomically better with the bat than Saenz.
Another way to compare the likelihood of scoring is to calculate "win expectancy." Here are some of the historical probabilities of scoring a certain number of runs given the out/base situation, courtesy of TangoTiger. I have it broken down this way.
Score zero runs -
Scoring 0 Runs, 99 - 02 Historical
The Dodgers win the game in the 9th if they score score at least 1 run. This is the inverse of scoring 0 runs.
ScoreAtLeastARun(0 outs, runners on 1st and 2nd) = 1 - ScoreZeroRuns = 1 - 0.359 = 64.1%
ScoreAtLeastARun(1 out, bases loaded) = 1 - ScoreZeroRuns = 1 - 0.33 = 67%.
The historical likelihood of scoring is a tad higher with the bases loaded and 1 out.
As a check, here are the historical probabilities of scoring exactly 1 run, which is all the Dodgers needed.
Score a single run -
Scoring 1 Run, 99 - 02 Historical
ScoreOneRun(0 outs, runners on 1st and 2nd) = 21.9%
ScoreOneRun(1 out, bases loaded) = 25.2%
Again, it's slightly preferrable to have the bases loaded with 1 out. It appears that Tracy made the right decision. Too bad Slomedo hit into a DP to end the inning; a walk would have been more appropriate. The Cards were handing out walks like those chicks infront of Staples Center who give out free passes to Spearmint Rhino.
(Edit: Slackfarmer in comment #2 correctly points out that the assumption of a 100% bunt success rate is erroneous. This does even out the odds a bit, I would think. Good thing it wasn't Antonio Perez up there attempting a bunt... )
Now if only I could figure out why the Tracy inserted Alvarez into Robles' #2 spot during the last double switch. Phillips could have taken over for Navarro, who was hitting 7th and had caught 3 straight games...
Comments:
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Dude..i read your blog often and am a huge dodger fan..one of the biggest..and right now you are pulling a jim tracy. STOP PLAYING THE NUMBERS GAME..it didn't help alvarez beat edmonds did it? Baseball is a streaky game and i understand you would want to sac the runners over..but let bradley bat..worst comes to worst theres still going to be a runner on base somewhere and kent would have brought him in..he took the bat out of 2 batters hands and basically put two outs up there himeself
# posted by 
: 11:24 PM
: 11:24 PM
The flaw in your calculus is you assume the bunt goes down perfectly ever time. MB could have poppe out, bunted straight to a fielder so the lead runner is forced, etc.
I didn't like the bunt, but I think it's pretty much a wash. Wasting A. Perez was worse (especially in hindsight). Batting Izzy lead off is bad too.
But the worst thing Tracy does is play the wrong guys. Why on earth is Phillips playing 1B? Repko an everyday guy? A. Perez (with the 4th highest OPS of anybody with more than 10 ABs and similarly ranke VORP) rides the pine?
I didn't like the bunt, but I think it's pretty much a wash. Wasting A. Perez was worse (especially in hindsight). Batting Izzy lead off is bad too.
But the worst thing Tracy does is play the wrong guys. Why on earth is Phillips playing 1B? Repko an everyday guy? A. Perez (with the 4th highest OPS of anybody with more than 10 ABs and similarly ranke VORP) rides the pine?
looks like i hit a nerve. good. nothing like a good dialect.
anon, like i said, i was screaming bloody murder when the bunt happened. i was about to go medieval on tracy until i looked at the numbers when i realized that the bunt wasn't that bad. even defendable.
as for "STOP PLAYING THE NUMBES GAME", my masthead clearly shows "dodgers by the numbers" underneath. it's my MO.
slack, you got me. i assumed that the bunt would be 100% successful, which is never the case. bradley is an EXCELLENT bunter, though. he doesn't bunt often, but i've never seen him botch one.
as mentioned, hindsight makes all the difference. running out of hitters by the 11th turned out to be poor. but what if bradley hit into a DP in the 9th? what if ledee didn't come in to PH for perez and perez K'd instead? many of us would be raving mad, i would think.
anon, like i said, i was screaming bloody murder when the bunt happened. i was about to go medieval on tracy until i looked at the numbers when i realized that the bunt wasn't that bad. even defendable.
as for "STOP PLAYING THE NUMBES GAME", my masthead clearly shows "dodgers by the numbers" underneath. it's my MO.
slack, you got me. i assumed that the bunt would be 100% successful, which is never the case. bradley is an EXCELLENT bunter, though. he doesn't bunt often, but i've never seen him botch one.
as mentioned, hindsight makes all the difference. running out of hitters by the 11th turned out to be poor. but what if bradley hit into a DP in the 9th? what if ledee didn't come in to PH for perez and perez K'd instead? many of us would be raving mad, i would think.
just got back from a 2 margarita lunch. i'm either dazed from the booze or that david tickstein went deep during the series...
hey steve, first of all i hope the bar exam went fine.
some good points raised...the run probability chart does not incorporate the strength of the hitter, the pitcher, etc. it's a historical aggregate that i think is insightful and is by no means "the answer" to every game situation. to go into the gory details, i would need to draw up some sort of a decision tree. i simplified greatly because otherwise i'd have to parse actual situational game data. that's too much trouble for me. the chart does a reasonable job summarizing the various possible events. it's a stat, not a rule.
maybe tracy felt that bradley was struggling since he came back. i can't fault him for thinking that. if so, it comes down to either saenz or kent. you really want kent up there, but kent was going to be walked if there was an open base had bradley made a productive out or hit into a DP. so taking a shot with saenz where a sac fly or a walk would win the game doesn't sound so bad.
i don't like giving away outs either, but i find that palatable in a close late game where scoring 1 run is the same as scoring 10 runs. that's just what i think.
hey steve, first of all i hope the bar exam went fine.
some good points raised...the run probability chart does not incorporate the strength of the hitter, the pitcher, etc. it's a historical aggregate that i think is insightful and is by no means "the answer" to every game situation. to go into the gory details, i would need to draw up some sort of a decision tree. i simplified greatly because otherwise i'd have to parse actual situational game data. that's too much trouble for me. the chart does a reasonable job summarizing the various possible events. it's a stat, not a rule.
maybe tracy felt that bradley was struggling since he came back. i can't fault him for thinking that. if so, it comes down to either saenz or kent. you really want kent up there, but kent was going to be walked if there was an open base had bradley made a productive out or hit into a DP. so taking a shot with saenz where a sac fly or a walk would win the game doesn't sound so bad.
i don't like giving away outs either, but i find that palatable in a close late game where scoring 1 run is the same as scoring 10 runs. that's just what i think.
Still, we are splitting hairs. Just like discussions of batting order. They're interesting, but the real issue is that Tracy isn't starting Perez and Choi.
i did not know eldred's g/f ratio being that high. good insight.
did bradley just pop up a bunt in the 8th while down by a run???? a tied game in the 9th at home is one thing, down by a run on the road with valentin hitting behind kent... i'm watching this unfold on gameday only, but that seems stupid.
did bradley just pop up a bunt in the 8th while down by a run???? a tied game in the 9th at home is one thing, down by a run on the road with valentin hitting behind kent... i'm watching this unfold on gameday only, but that seems stupid.
"bradley is an EXCELLENT bunter, though. he doesn't bunt often, but i've never seen him botch one."
i love it when i say something and it comes back squarely in the face. i'm ducking them boomerangs right now!!
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i love it when i say something and it comes back squarely in the face. i'm ducking them boomerangs right now!!
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