BLUE THINK TANK

Update 3/29: MLB has hired former senator George Mitchell to investigate steroid use by Bonds* and others. Let's hope this is a real investigation and not a PR whitewash.

According to ESPN, MLB plans to celebrate Bonds* run for the HR crown. What the f***? Hasn't Game of Shadows put to rest any reasonable doubt that the guy* was juiced up. Instead of celebrating him*, MLB should ban him*.

As opening day draws near, Mr. Ned is a few roster cuts away from closing out his first offseason. So how did he do? In this post I'll ignore the pitching side and just look at some of the hitters he signed.

Mr. Ned's first big free agent signing was Furcal for ss. Then he added 3b Mueller, c Alomar, 1b?! Garciaparra and cf Lofton. How do these guys stack up to what we had last year? Here's how the 2005 Dodgers players hit:


And here's Zips 2006 projections for Mr. Ned's guys:

Zips 2006 Projections
		OBP	SPC	OPS
Furcal#	ss	.352	.431	.783
Mueller#	3b	.369	.441	.810
Alomar	c	.273	.328	.601
Garciaparra	1b	.321	.469	.790
Lofton*	cf	.333	.368	.701

Looks like an upgrade at ss and 3b, and a downgrade a c, 1b and cf. Before we get into the analysis though, note that the Zips projections are based upon where these guys came from. Later in the offseason, the Zips were revised to take into account Dodger Stadium park effects, which put a sizeable bite in some of the numbers. Here are the revised projections:


So we have the same upgrades and downgrades, but the upside isn't as high and the downside is worse.

Of course there are some playing time adjustments that need to be made. Alomar won't play very much, really he replaces Bako who managed a .662 OPS last year. So Alomar is a downgrade at backup catcher, but Navarro (and Martin) will get the bulk of ABs available for catchers.

On the other hand, it's equally unfair to think Furcal, Mueller and the other starters will take every AB at their positions. For example, without Edwards and Robles 3b sub-.650 OPS ABs, the Dodgers would have had a very strong 3b last year. So if we factor in some Izzy and Robles as ss and some (probably more) Robles and who knows at 3b, the upgrades at ss and are reduced even further. Even with these adjustments, Furcal is still a significant upgrade at ss. Mueller begins to look like a wash.

Lofton and Garciaparra not playing everyday should actually increase overall production at their respective positions -- assuming, of course, that Mr. Ned and Grady spell them with the best subs (Zips projected OPS: Cruz .761, Werth .757, and Choi .822) rather than Tracy's friends (Zips projected OPS: Repko .698, Robles .684 and Martinez .652).

So where does that leave us? A material upgrade at ss, a wash at 3b and 1b, and a material downgrade at cf. And a downgrade a backup catcher, to the extent that makes much difference at all. All this for only about $20 million in added salary.

There is also the idea that when Izzy is healthy he will play 2b and move Kent over to 1b. Such stupidity would effectively replace the nearly .800 OPS of Garciaparra/Choi/Saenz with Izzy's projected .662. No way this could really happen. I mean, who would possible replace a platoon OPSing around .800 with someone with an OPS in the mid six hundreds? Oh yeah, he's managing in Pittsburgh now.

We've upgraded to Yahoo Sports Fantasy Baseball PLUS, so here's the new info: follow this link to Yahoo Sports Fantasy Baseball PLUS, enter League ID "3944" and Password "scully". Live draft on Sunday at 11:30 LA time. Trash-talking Dodger fans preferred, but all are welcome.

FYI, here's the complete league settings:

League ID#:	3944
League Name:	Sabertooth Dodgers II
Password:	scully
League Paid For:	By Commissioner
Season Type:	Full
Draft Type:	Live Draft
Draft Time:	Sun Mar 26 11:30am PST
Max Teams:	20
Scoring Type:	Head-to-Head
Player Universe:	All baseball
Max Moves:	No maximum
Max Trades:	No maximum
Trade Reject Time:	2
Trade End Date:	August 13, 2006
Waiver Time:	2 days
Can't Cut List Provider:	Yahoo! Sports
Trade Review:	League Votes
Post Draft Players:	Follow Waiver Rules
Min Innings Pitched:	30
Weekly Deadline:	Daily - Tomorrow
Start Scoring on:	Week 1
Divisions:	No
Roster Positions:	C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL, DL
Stat Categories:	HR, SB, BB, OBP, SLG, IP, HR, BB, K, ERA

Thanks to Catfish Stew for pointing it out, and to Andrew Koch for pointing it out to Catfish.

It's been almost three months since my last post. Is such delinquency the result of my still smoldering resentment at McCourt for canning Depo? Too damn much work? The wife banned me from all things baseball? Just too f***ing lazy?

No. It's fantasy baseball withdraw-induced coma. Now is the time to rouse from hibernation and enjoy some baseball (of the fantasy variety -- cause I'm certainly not too excited about Mr. Ned's over-the-hill gang of ex-sox&jints).

So follow this link to Yahoo Sports Fantasy Baseball, enter League ID "245831" -- Password "scully", and let the games begin.